Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021)： Actively Deploying the Japanese Market to Increase International Shipping Capacity
Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021): Actively Deploying the Japanese Market to Increase International Shipping Capacity
The company’s recent situation Spring Airlines announced November operating data: demand (RPK) increased by 21 in ten years.
1%, the supply (ASK) increased by 21 in ten years.
At 7%, the load factor drops by 0 per second.
48 up to 86.
On January 11, 2019, the company’s RPK increased by 14 each year.
5%, requiring an annual increase of 11.
9%, cumulative load factor exceeds 2.
1 up to 91.
Commentary In November, capacity growth accelerated, and the international line surpassed significantly.
The company’s ASK increased 21 in November.
7%, up from 13. in October earlier
5% is fast and obvious, and the temporary growth rate is the highest since September 2018.
The domestic line is growing by 8 per year.
2%, slower than October 11.
1%; international short-term substantial growth of 54.
5%, up from 19 of October earlier.
The 1% increase is significant, and we estimate that it will be mainly driven by the substantial increase in capacity of the Japan Line.
Regional line capacity surpassed 5 in November.
1%, down 1 from the previous month.
4%, year-on-year growth slower than 9 in October.
With high capacity growth, the company’s overall load factor has been under pressure for many times.
The company’s load factor in November has dropped by 0 every year.
48 up to 86.
5%, mainly dragged down by international routes and regional routes.
International passenger load factor drops by 2 every year.
6ppt to 79.
1%. We estimate that the company is the first to deploy the Japanese route, considering that the overall capacity of the China-Japan route industry is growing rapidly and the Tokyo Olympics may bring about a significant increase in demand for going to Japan.
According to CAPA data, the Japanese line ASK increased at least about 124% in the spring of November 2019. The current Japanese line accounted for about 27% of the company’s international line (including regional) capacity (ASK caliber).
Regional line load factor temporarily decreased 7.
8ppt to 80.
9%, a decrease from the previous month’s 4.
7ppt has been expanded.
In November, the average annual increase in the number of regional line RPKs and passengers increased. We estimate that in addition to the Hong Kong and Taiwan regional events, it was still affected by the high base in the same period last year (the area line RPK in November 2018 exceeded the increase of 42.
4%, the load factor increased by 5 in ten years.
6ppt to 88.
It is estimated that the 重庆耍耍网 company currently can sustainably correspond to 2019/2020 20.
4x P / E, maintaining earnings forecast for 2019/202018.
430,000 yuan, maintain outperform industry rating and target price of 49 yuan, corresponding to 2019/2020 24.
1/20 times P / E, which is 15 compared with the previous one.
3% growth space.
Risks Aviation demand is less than expected; oil prices have grown significantly; fleet introduction has been slower; supplementary declines.