Guizhou Moutai (600519) Quarterly Report Review： First Quarterly Report Begins Prosperously
Guizhou Moutai (600519) Quarterly Report Review: First Quarterly Report Begins Prosperously
The first quarter was a good start, and the growth rate was gratifying and the performance exceeded expectations.The company announced a quarterly report and achieved a total operating income of 224 in 19Q1.81 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.21%; net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of 113.20,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.79%; corresponding basic EPS is 8.93 yuan. Core point of view Moutai maintains a high growth rate and optimizes its marketing layout.In terms of products, Q1 Moutai sales revenue was 194.98 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.67%; series wine income 21.32 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.29%. We believe that the rapid growth of product revenue is related to the structural upgrade driven by the increase in non-standard share.In terms of advance receipts, due to the second quarter payment in advance by dealers in late March, the company’s advance receipts for the first quarter amounted to 113.8.5 billion, advance receipts fall by 17 every year.88 million may be due to the cancellation of unpaid funds and some dealers underpaid.From the perspective of the approval price, the market continued to be in a state of supply and demand replenishment in the first quarter. There was a general shortage of Pfeiffer.From the perspective of distributors, the company reduced 494 sauce-flavored wine distributors in Q1. The number of domestic distributors dropped by 533 to 2,454. The marketing network layout was further optimized and the overall strength of distributors was improved. Increase in gross profit margin + decline in expense ratio during the period and continued improvement in profitability.Mainly benefiting from the structural upgrade, the company’s sales gross profit margin in 19Q1 reached 92.11%, a year to raise 0.8pct, but the company’s share of direct sales revenue fell more than 2%.7 points to 4.86%, inhibited the increase in gross profit 夜来香体验网 margin.Under the rapid revenue dilution, the sales expense ratio decreased year by year1.26pct up to 3.88%, the management expense ratio dropped slightly.03pct to 6.52%.The company’s net sales margin in the first quarter reached 55.05%, a year to increase by 2.77pct, profitability hit a new high. China Merchants promoted the speeding up of direct sales construction, and the business group purchasing e-commerce has made three efforts.With the opening of Moutai Sales Company ‘s open investment promotion in Guizhou and the country for business superstores, we judge that the company ‘s direct sales channel construction has improved. Business supermarkets, group purchases, and e-commerce are expected to become the three major direct sales channels.Revenue and profit increments.In the short term, the company expects to balance demand, stabilize prices, improve services, and strengthen cultural Moutai construction in the short term. In the long term, the gap between supply and demand for Moutai wine still exists, and the logic of price increase is still valid. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations As the non-standard share ratio has increased the ton price of liquor, we have raised our gross profit margin forecast; we have lowered our sales expense forecast under the dilute revenue growth.Adjust the company’s EPS forecast for 19-21 to 34.57, 40.49, 47.19 (The original 19-21 forecast was 33.01, 38.77, 45.twenty three).The DCF estimation method is used to give the company a target price of 1090.23 yuan, corresponding to 32 times PE in 19, maintain BUY rating. Risks indicate the risk of insufficient base wine production capacity, the risk of increased social inventory, and the risk of environmental degradation.