Menu

Hengrui Medicine (600276): The source of living water continues to innovate and accelerate the leader’s duration and time race

Comments Off on Hengrui Medicine (600276): The source of living water continues to innovate and accelerate the leader’s duration and time race

Hengrui Medicine (600276): The source of living water continues to innovate and accelerate the leader’s duration and time race

The characteristics of this report: Deconstruct the layout of innovative drug pipelines of domestic leading companies, and compare the similarities and differences.

We sorted out the layout of innovative product lines of four high-quality companies including Hengrui, Zhengda Tianqing, Kelun and Qilu.

Among them, VEGF, PD-1, PD-L1, Her2, c-MET and other target head companies have a high degree of overlap.

But Hengrui pipeline has exclusive targets such as IDO, AML1-ETO, EZH2, IL-15 and TIM-3.

Great innovation and excellence, both need to go fast, look forward (exclusive target), and need to go steady (verified target), is the field of continuous and time race.

Hengrui is definitely the absolute leader of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies.

An analysis of Hengrui’s product line, selected 8 major future potential targets for detailed analysis.

In the past two years, the company’s innovation strategy has changed from quickly following counterfeiting to system layout, and it also has many new targets.

We selected the microdiversity in the research of tumor and rheumatology to focus on the research of microdiversity. Among them, there are several varieties at home and abroad that do not have the same target products on the market.

These newer target points of the post-layout will become the main driving force for the company’s future value.

Hengrui Investment’s core logic: Extensive sales team is the basis for the company ‘s innovative drug volume scale: The company has built a sales team of 10,000 people for a long time. The 天津夜网 main products of each segment have a high city share, which reflects its strong sales ability.

Steady growth of the generic drugs segment: The existing three core areas of tumors, anesthesia, and angiography are growing steadily, and injections are relatively less affected by volume purchases in the short to medium term.

In terms of rich research varieties, it covers a wide range of treatment areas such as anti-tumor, diabetes, diabetes, anesthesia, and antithrombotic. Among them, dexmedetomidine nasal spray, linbutrol injection and other various priority reviews, nearly twoIt is expected to be approved for the first imitation listing.

Innovative medicine is a well-deserved leader in the country, and the rapid volume of new products drives performance: 19K, pirlotinib, and PD-1 are rapidly driving growth. In the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 next three years, the proportion of innovative drug revenue will increase to 40%.

Subsequent research and development continue to invest.

In the future, innovative drugs such as famitinib, AR inhibitors, regaglitin, hangaglipemide, remazolol, and hetripperpa are expected to be launched in the future.

How much growth space does Hengrui have in the future?

Looking at the 10-year dimension, encouraging innovation to bring about changes in the structure of domestic medication, leading concentration has increased, and Hengrui is far from reaching the ceiling.

The US prescription drug market totaled approximately $ 420 billion in 2018, and the top ten pharmaceutical companies combined accounted for approximately 37 of the market.

66%.

According to data from Zhongkang.com, the pre-prescription drug market is about 1.

3-1.

At 35 trillion yuan, Hengrui currently only accounts for 1 of the overall market.

3%, the overall proportion of foreign companies is about 24-25%.

In the next 10 years, the prescription drug market is expected to grow steadily at an annual growth rate of about 8%. By 2029, the size of the prescription drug market is expected to reach approximately 300 million.The total market share of leading companies such as Haussen has increased to 35%.

With reference to the situation of overseas leaders, Hengrui, as the leader in the domestic pharmaceutical market, is expected to account for 4-5 percent of the overall market share. The 10-year revenue scale is expected to reach 120 billion yuan, and the profit volume is expected to be 25 billion yuan.

Profit forecast and rating.

Based on the expected volume of new products and the approval of innovative drugs, we expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 51 in 2019-2021.

5.1 billion, 64.

48 ppm, 80.

33 trillion, an increase of 26.

7%, 25.

2%, 24.

6%.

EPS are 1.

16 yuan, 1.

46 yuan, 1.

82 yuan, corresponding to PE is 67x, 53x, 43x.We think that the company’s domestic and overseas news reports are frequently spread and there are many bright spots.

With the release of pirlotinib, 19k, albumin, paclitaxel, and PD-1, the company’s revenue has increased due to the overseas development of sevoflurane, atracurium, and the net release of new batches of carbophene and the steady growth of old varietiesThe end strives to maintain a rapid growth rate of more than 25%.

We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development, covering for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The growth rate of overseas business is lower than expected, the risk of failure of innovative drug R & D, and the volume of generic drugs fails to meet expectations.