Menu

Shenzhen Gas (601139): LNG receiving station, a leading distributor of high-quality gas, is about to start production

Comments Off on Shenzhen Gas (601139): LNG receiving station, a leading distributor of high-quality gas, is about to start production

Shenzhen Gas (601139): LNG receiving station, a leading distributor of high-quality gas, is about to start production

High-quality gas distribution leader, covering the first time with a “Buy” rating. The company is a regional and regional high-quality gas 无锡桑拿网 distribution leader. Based on the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, it ranks prominently among downstream customers, benefiting from the transformation of urban villages, power plant customer expansion, etc., and sales in 2018-20CAGR is expected to reach 21.

4%.

The company’s LNG receiving station with 1 billion cubic meters of turnover capacity is about to be put into operation. Considering that the overseas gas price is lower than the domestic average price, the trend of supplying low-cost gas will help the company to contribute net profit after full production3.

600 million, accounting for 38% of net profit attributable to mothers in 18 years.

Expected company 2018?
The EPS for 20 years is 0.

33/0.

37/0.

46 yuan, BPS is 3.

17/3.

42/3.

73 yuan.

The current anniversary corresponds to 2018?
The 20-year P / E is 18.

35/16.

21/13.

33x, P / B is 1.

92/1.

78/1.

63x, giving the company 21-23 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 7.

86-8.

61 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Inventory: Customers gain weight, sales volume increases steadily, cost supervision review reduces gross profit in 19 years less than 2% 1) Price: The company is based in Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. In 2017, Shenzhen / off-site gas sales accounted for about 67% / 33%, benefiting from non-The gas distribution business of the power plant has a high gross margin.

69 yuan, which is significantly higher than 0 of Baichuan Energy / China Gas / Xinao Energy.

63/0.

62/0.

63 yuan; 2) Volume: Benefiting from the transformation of urban villages in Shenzhen, continuous expansion of factory customers, further expansion of off-site expansion, and other favorable promotions, the company’s gas sales are expected to grow rapidly. It is expected that gas distribution in 2020 will exceed 36 billion cubic meters, 2018-20 The annual CAGR reached 21.

4%; 3) Cost monitoring and review: The policy finally came into effect, and the company’s impact was limited. The new policy requires that the maximum price of industrial and commercial gas in Shenzhen area be reduced by 1 gross from 19. According to our calculations, it is expected to affect 19 years’ gross profit of 55.45 million yuan.The proportion is only 1.

8%.

Incremental: LNG receiving stations are expected to contribute net profit after reaching production3.

6 billion, accounting for 38% of net profit attributable to mothers in 2018. As the most potential core asset in the entire industry chain, LNG receiving stations will fully benefit from this (global LNG supply and demand is loose) and high prices (domestic LNG prices) maintain high levels.) Bring the spread.

The company’s LNG receiving station is designed to have an annual turnover of 1 billion cubic meters and has been completed. It is expected to be put into operation in 2019. According to our calculations, based on the assumption that the turnover will reach 4/8/1 billion cubic meters respectively, it is estimated thatCan contribute net profit1.

1/2.

7/3.

US $ 600 million, of which the net profit expected to be achieved after Dada production accounted for 38% of the net profit attributable to mothers in 2018, which is expected to significantly increase the company’s performance.

The first coverage is given a “Buy” rating with a target price of 7.

86-8.

61 yuan our prediction company 2018?Net profit attributable to mothers in 2020 will be 9 respectively.

5/10.

8/13.
10,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

33/0.

37/0.

46 yuan, BPS is 3 respectively.

17/3.

42/3.

73 yuan.

The current total corresponds to 2018?
P / E is 18 in 2020.

35/16.

21/13.

33x, P / B is 1.

92/1.

78/1.

63x.

The average P / E in 2019 for comparable companies in the reference industry is 22.

01x, considering that the company’s stock asset performance continues to improve and the incremental assets are of high quality, the company is given a target PE of 21-23 times in 2019, and the corresponding target price is 7.

86-8.

61 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Risk reminders: risk of internal gas price fluctuations; upstream natural gas supply risks; policy landing risks.